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Job summary

Produce evidence-cutoff-based political reports and forecasts, including judgments on polling, election probabilities, and market-implied odds. Explain the expected political and market effects of events, and evaluate model-generated analyses against independent expert judgment.

Job details

About The Job Mercor connects elite creative and technical talent with leading AI research labs. Headquartered in San Francisco, our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Peter Thiel, Adam D'Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey. Position: Local Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk Type: Contract Compensation: $150–$250/hour Location: Remote Role Responsibilities Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff. Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds. Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact. Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard. Work independently and asynchronously to meet deadlines while improving AI model performance. Qualifications Must-Have Local political analysts with hands-on experience on specific races in swing states. On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and local political environment. A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in those races. Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis. 8+ years of direct experience or equivalent performance. Preferred Experience in political science departments and survey research centers at universities in target states. State and regional pollsters, state-level campaign and party analytics teams. Decision desks or race-ratings outlets with state-specific coverage. National forecasting or political-risk experience with deep knowledge of a specific state. Not a fit Profiles with experience mainly in international politics, geopolitics, or country risk. Analysts who have not worked on a current or recent US race in the state they would cover. Pure communications or journalism profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment. Academic profiles whose work is purely theoretical, with no analysis of live races. Application Process (Takes 20–30 mins to complete) Upload resume AI interview based on your resume Submit form Resources & Support For details about the interview process and platform information, please check: https://talent.docs.mercor.com/welcome For any help or support, reach out to: support@mercor.com PS: Our team reviews applications daily. Please complete your AI interview and application steps to be considered for this opportunity.

What you’ll do

Produce evidence-cutoff-based political reports and forecasts, including judgments on polling, election probabilities, and market-implied odds. Explain the expected political and market effects of events, and evaluate model-generated analyses against independent expert judgment.

Requirements

Candidates must have hands-on experience with current or recent races in a specific U.S. swing state, strong local knowledge, polling literacy, and a record of making live forecasting judgments. The posting requires at least eight years of direct experience or equivalent performance; experience in relevant university research, polling, campaign analytics, decision desks, or political forecasting is preferred.

Listed skills

• Technical · Preferred
• analysis · Preferred
• Organization · Preferred
• Attention to detail · Preferred
• Data analysis · Preferred
• Process · Preferred
• meet deadlines · Preferred
• Time · Preferred
• Forecasting · Preferred

Other relevant skills

Identified from the job description. Confirm important requirements above.

• Political Risk Analysis
• Political Forecasting
• Elections Analysis
• Polling Analysis
• Win Probability Assessment
• Market-Implied Odds Analysis
• Causal Event Analysis
• Local Political Knowledge
• Swing-State Expertise
• Political Reporting
• Model Evaluation
• Evidence-Based Judgment
• Survey Research
• Asynchronous Work

Job areas

• Government & Public Sector
• Data & Analytics
• Science & Research